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republican lance gilman, the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's story county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution, and gilman just became the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county commissioner-elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business success that i bring to the commission. it is kind of a hard issue to ignore. gilman, by the way, calls himself a dyed in the wool republican who loves american values. >>> finally, last week steve schmidt said on "meet the press" that a lot of swing voters think of the republican party as one of loons and wackos. this is a republican talking. mike murphy, another republican strategist, just weighed in on "meet the press." here he is. >> this is an existential crisis for the republican party, and we have to have a brutal discussion about it. we alienate young voters because of gay marriage, w
republican lance gilman, the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's story county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution, and gilman just became the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county commissioner-elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume, powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact tour tomorrow. we'll be right back. >> bill: what will happen in the presidential vote tomorrow. w
but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney...
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neil: president just won nevada. >> karl rove and decision desk were at odds this evening about what is going to happen in ohio, but barack obama i suggestions would win ohio by twice as many votes at george w. bush did, winning 300,000 vote victory in ohio. and. neil: no automatic anything? >> no, he will be outside. they will never open the provisionals. neil: it looks leaser than that right now. >> but here is what is going on, in ohio, it is two states, a northern democratic state, and a southern republican state. we got the vote in the south by and large, in the north. mitt romney will lose big there. neil: what happened? >> well, i think simplest way to explain ohio, is that starting in april, barack obama ran millions of dollars a month in very negative attack ads to mitt romney's character, his bank accounts, who he is, they took all those months, while romney was trying it get going, they blew up his character in the state, they put a very specific plan, that is block romney in ohio, as lou said before, it went unanswered for a long time. so that attitude may not have harden
neil: president just won nevada. >> karl rove and decision desk were at odds this evening about what is going to happen in ohio, but barack obama i suggestions would win ohio by twice as many votes at george w. bush did, winning 300,000 vote victory in ohio. and. neil: no automatic anything? >> no, he will be outside. they will never open the provisionals. neil: it looks leaser than that right now. >> but here is what is going on, in ohio, it is two states, a northern...
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Nov 5, 2012
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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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but you have nevada which is leaning towards obama and wisconsin is still leaning towards obama. ohio, is my view, is in dispense able. >> where did you read that nevada is leaning towards obama. >> i haven't seen a poll are romney leading first. it's one-third hispanic, and this heavily unionized. >> i have people there and they don't think that at all. >> that's the wrong neighborhood. >> here's the point i want to make. the polls today are regarded at microscopically perfect, you and i know, say ten years ago when you were still doing this show because of your tenacity, and because of my leniency. >> 0 years ago. >> 20 years ago, 30, polls were regarded as a rock makes, these polls today have -- as approximation, these polls today are -- >> there is money to be made. >> one or two -- [ talking over one another ] >> i hate to see this come to an end. >> polls are not that precise. >> if they weren't that precise, why do politicians spend that much money on them? >> they are false idols. they are worshiping the false idol. >> the media are more obsessed with polling than before.
but you have nevada which is leaning towards obama and wisconsin is still leaning towards obama. ohio, is my view, is in dispense able. >> where did you read that nevada is leaning towards obama. >> i haven't seen a poll are romney leading first. it's one-third hispanic, and this heavily unionized. >> i have people there and they don't think that at all. >> that's the wrong neighborhood. >> here's the point i want to make. the polls today are regarded at...
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i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big numbers and it's been really hard to tell where they're at, because they haven't been very vocal, but if they turn out in big numbers, i think mitt romney could get the state. i don't expect him to. >> i would expect him to turn out in big n
i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic approach. we are democrats. we are going to stand up for what's right and stand up for a country that is more inclusive and more respectful of everybody. >> congressman luis gutierrez, good to have you on "the ed show qud tonight. >>> republicans think a night at the movies might get them set straight on some of the issues they are facing. i will show you how they have done this in the past. stay tuned. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of ki
in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic...
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Nov 5, 2012
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. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force th
. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i...
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nevada senator-elect dean heller defeated addleson foe shelly berkeley, a democrat. forbes put it in perspective. $53 million may sound like a chuck of change, it's not much for a guy worth $20.5 billion. imagine an average person with $100,000 net worth, buying a pair of shoes for $250. you'd care if you lost them, but you wouldn't be ruined. finally one kentucky candidate learned the hard way that every vote counts. robert mcdonald finished in a dead heat with to livia bilou for time seat on the walton city council. one vote that was not cast would have put him over the top. only one vote would have done it. cincinnati inquirer reports that mcdonald's wife who works nights at hospital and finishing nursing training did not make it to the polls. so now his election will hinge on a coin flip. president obama didn't have to rely, of course, on con flip to get his second term but now he has some decisions to make. about who is going to be working with him over the next four years. correspondent shannon bream on the possibilities. >> that is something i'm in the process
nevada senator-elect dean heller defeated addleson foe shelly berkeley, a democrat. forbes put it in perspective. $53 million may sound like a chuck of change, it's not much for a guy worth $20.5 billion. imagine an average person with $100,000 net worth, buying a pair of shoes for $250. you'd care if you lost them, but you wouldn't be ruined. finally one kentucky candidate learned the hard way that every vote counts. robert mcdonald finished in a dead heat with to livia bilou for time seat on...
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>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just today, so give him wisconsin, iowa, and the state of ohio, he's at 237. so on the remaining map here you see these strategies in the final moments now and where they pick and where they go and the reasons why. say the president were to pick pennsylvania, he's at 255. and so now at this moment based on this scenario and all the polling we have seen maybe he takes michigan. that would be enough to get him to 271. >> this shows the centrality of ohio. i don't think he's going to carry ohio. i've been food link on th7,000 democ
>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just...
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Nov 6, 2012
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iowa, nevada, florida, new hampshire on romney side. here is the point. you been to mcconnell sert. the maller band opens up and then wait for the headline act. do you find it strange that springstein opened for jay-toss make jay-z the bigger act? >> greg: he is the bigger act. average age of springstein fan is 87. >> bob: 18,000, that is a huge crowd. >> dana: buck county with 30,000. challengers get bigger crowd on the weekend. give romney credit, they have big turn-outs, but there is hatred of obama. >> kimberly: i don't think it's hatred. they're motivated and inspired about someone with ideas. >> eric: we like capitalism. >> kimberly: we have to get out of here. >> dana: campaign carl is on the road with romney. he has update on the strategy to win in the states ohio and pennsylvania tomorrow. that's next. ♪ ♪ i was having trouble getting out of bed in the morning because my back hurt so bad. the sleep number bed conforms to you. i wake up in the morning with no back pain. i can adjust it if i need to...if my back's a little more sore. and by the time i get up in the mornin
iowa, nevada, florida, new hampshire on romney side. here is the point. you been to mcconnell sert. the maller band opens up and then wait for the headline act. do you find it strange that springstein opened for jay-toss make jay-z the bigger act? >> greg: he is the bigger act. average age of springstein fan is 87. >> bob: 18,000, that is a huge crowd. >> dana: buck county with 30,000. challengers get bigger crowd on the weekend. give romney credit, they have big turn-outs,...
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colorado, nevada, ohio. right now that came is concluding very quickly. this is that are still open, nevada, colorado, ohio. tightening up. they decided. lou: is there momentum? is that momentum at the very least? whenever the effect may be from hurricane sandy? was that interrupted? i'm not suggesting it was stop, stop perhaps by hurricane sandy. >> you know, that's the sort of question that one can really only guess at. who knows. i don't think it doesn't -- lou: we have certain knowledge. every other hypothetical. >> he said that russia poll earlier. i think it's notable that obama is only at 41%. 41-8. big margin, but he's under 50 and undecideds tend to break for the challenger. lou: to you want to rebut his analysis. >> i'll leave him to analyze their boat in russia. something interesting to watch. there continues to be an enthusiasm gap between republicans and democrats. barack obama ahead of mitt romney. even are slightly at which means for my party you have to get our enthusiasm level up to match the ground game. lou: and you're doing an excellen
colorado, nevada, ohio. right now that came is concluding very quickly. this is that are still open, nevada, colorado, ohio. tightening up. they decided. lou: is there momentum? is that momentum at the very least? whenever the effect may be from hurricane sandy? was that interrupted? i'm not suggesting it was stop, stop perhaps by hurricane sandy. >> you know, that's the sort of question that one can really only guess at. who knows. i don't think it doesn't -- lou: we have certain...
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Nov 29, 2012
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in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic approach. we are democrats. we are going to stand up for what's right and stand up for a country that is more inclusive and more respectful of everybody. >> congressman luis gutierrez, good to have you on "the ed show qud tonight. it's that time of . time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and re
in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic...
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Nov 4, 2012
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some would argue that michigan and nevada should have been leaning obama. we have a very close election. it will be decided on election night with a bunch of potential surprises. >>chris: you have a white board? karl: on the 3rd of november in 2008, president obama was at or above 50 percent in seven of the 13 battleground states that year. in the same states this year, same day, president obama is at 50 percent, not above 50 percent but 50 percent in two, wisconsin and nevada, and wisconsin, he is only at 50 percent because there is one poll that has an eight-point lead. we have gone from cruising to victory in 2008 to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >>chris: a last question, what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania and what do you make of obama with last minute ad buys in florida and virginia. who is serious? who is bluffing in. >> they are all serious. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia, where the clear politics average goes to romney and pennsylvania is in play. if president obama was comfortable with pennsylvania he what
some would argue that michigan and nevada should have been leaning obama. we have a very close election. it will be decided on election night with a bunch of potential surprises. >>chris: you have a white board? karl: on the 3rd of november in 2008, president obama was at or above 50 percent in seven of the 13 battleground states that year. in the same states this year, same day, president obama is at 50 percent, not above 50 percent but 50 percent in two, wisconsin and nevada, and...
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Nov 10, 2012
11/12
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missouri, and the last cycle they throw away a slam dunk republican seats in maryland, colorado, and nevada. so, the left and the right of the party and all of its wings made -- made mistakes in choosing candidates. romney was not a great candidate. he came out of the open primary process. it was the only one in the field to was remotely presidential and that is why he got the nomination. >> president obama to 71% of the hispanic vote. if you were taking a look at the republican party, would you not start with them, mark? >> i would. i would also start with the asian vote. republican party is increasingly an older, whiter, male party. the republican base is moving -- a larger percentage of voters under 29 turned out than those over 60. republican base is moving from its own home to the rest come to the funeral home. and the democratic base is moving from their room, maybe eventually to a home of their own. if they get a job of their own. that is the difference between the two parties. >> there was a statistic that was just incredible. if you look at the white vote from 10 years ago, it was
missouri, and the last cycle they throw away a slam dunk republican seats in maryland, colorado, and nevada. so, the left and the right of the party and all of its wings made -- made mistakes in choosing candidates. romney was not a great candidate. he came out of the open primary process. it was the only one in the field to was remotely presidential and that is why he got the nomination. >> president obama to 71% of the hispanic vote. if you were taking a look at the republican party,...
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people say nevada, the president won nevada by 12% four years ago. this time his early voting is smaller. there is a need to win by 12%. he only needs to win by one vote. >> when you talk about you're going through the swing states, really it's the state of ohio. is that true all roads go through ohio for the romney campaign? >> yeah. it's really critical there. you look at the different scenarios you need again for mitt romney to take ohio, there are scenarios that we'll show you. he can win without ohio. but that takes everything else. that means he has to get florida. he has to get everything else basically that is leaning or tossup to make that happen. >> what i thought was interesting, we were talking about this earlier, i read an article where ana is credited on it. it's a latino vote in ohio that you never talk about. this election is so close that we are talking about latinos in ohio. and how they could potentially impact this vote. >> i say is that if we really want to get immigration done, some of us have to take it for the cause, put on co
people say nevada, the president won nevada by 12% four years ago. this time his early voting is smaller. there is a need to win by 12%. he only needs to win by one vote. >> when you talk about you're going through the swing states, really it's the state of ohio. is that true all roads go through ohio for the romney campaign? >> yeah. it's really critical there. you look at the different scenarios you need again for mitt romney to take ohio, there are scenarios that we'll show you....
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senator harry reid in nevada, the majority leader, and mitch mcconnell, of kentucky, the minority leader, both of them talking about why it is so difficult for democrats and republicans to compromise. h[video clip] >> we have a situation here where compromise is not what we do any more. in your program, john boehner said that he rejects the word compromise. that is exactly what he said. my friend, senator mcconnell, said that his single most important achievement is making sure the president -- that the president is a one-term president. >> compromise can be very difficult. we have different views on how much taxation and government should have, as well as regulation. it is not easy to reach agreement when you have a very different views of the direction the country should take. host: 60 minutes, talking about compromise. 44 state legislatures in play, "6000 seats at stake." we will be bringing you the results of gubernatorial races as well as house and senate races across the country. thomas joins us from frankfort, ky. hello, thomas. caller: i hope that you will give me as much time to
senator harry reid in nevada, the majority leader, and mitch mcconnell, of kentucky, the minority leader, both of them talking about why it is so difficult for democrats and republicans to compromise. h[video clip] >> we have a situation here where compromise is not what we do any more. in your program, john boehner said that he rejects the word compromise. that is exactly what he said. my friend, senator mcconnell, said that his single most important achievement is making sure the...
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when you take a look at how it's been jerry-rigged, sharron angle in nevada, compromise unfortunately has been such a dirty word right now. if, in fact, you're a moderate republican you're a turncoat or rhino. we have to stop this conversation and say, listen, if you're an arlen specter or rudman or scott brown, you are also welcome into the party. because you may be pro-choice, pro-gay rights, whatever the case may be, you're welcome. to sit here in washington, d.c. around a table and a thing of scotch and determine who the republican nominee is going to be is absolutely ludicrous and ridiculous. we need to go back to the basics of letting the best person win the primary -- >> you two are talking in circles. i'm trying to figure out why the region party tends to have had an unusual load of crazy people latery running to the point where they disturb the image of the party. mourdock hurt romney. let's be honest here. akin hurt romney. what's her name in sharron angle hurt the party and still hurts the party. i think people like michele bachmann still hurt the party. allen west hurts th
when you take a look at how it's been jerry-rigged, sharron angle in nevada, compromise unfortunately has been such a dirty word right now. if, in fact, you're a moderate republican you're a turncoat or rhino. we have to stop this conversation and say, listen, if you're an arlen specter or rudman or scott brown, you are also welcome into the party. because you may be pro-choice, pro-gay rights, whatever the case may be, you're welcome. to sit here in washington, d.c. around a table and a thing...
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the polls will be closing at 10:00 o'clock in nevada and montana, 10:00 o'clock eastern time, nevada is the home of leader harry reid, and dean heller in nevada as well. an appointed person to the sea, trying to hold onto that seat there from a strong challenge by congresswoman shelley berkley. that deal the one thank you very much. just about 30 seconds away from the next state closing. iowa, nevada, utah. lou: it looks like a night in which
the polls will be closing at 10:00 o'clock in nevada and montana, 10:00 o'clock eastern time, nevada is the home of leader harry reid, and dean heller in nevada as well. an appointed person to the sea, trying to hold onto that seat there from a strong challenge by congresswoman shelley berkley. that deal the one thank you very much. just about 30 seconds away from the next state closing. iowa, nevada, utah. lou: it looks like a night in which
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the president in states like ohio, or seen as a couple point lead in tricky states like wisconsin and nevada and places like that, and yet when you look at the national numbers, you see a much more murky situation. what's the difference? >> well, the difference is that it turns out that white working class voters in the midwest and the industrial midwest are different from white working class voters in the south. with jim messina and stagg about why they don't care about national numbers. the first thing if you look at the deep south, and appalachia, places where there's a lot of resistance to the president, he's polling below -- he's polling 25%, 30%, the -- those really, really red states, in the blue states, the president like where he's far ahead he's ahead by 10 or 12 points and in the red states by 30 or 40 points. chris: the red states, it's like a ballooning up of the national number. but it doesn't really hurt him electorally. >> that's the point. the national polling organizations like gallup, especially, which had romney ahead by five or circumstances points before they had -- six
the president in states like ohio, or seen as a couple point lead in tricky states like wisconsin and nevada and places like that, and yet when you look at the national numbers, you see a much more murky situation. what's the difference? >> well, the difference is that it turns out that white working class voters in the midwest and the industrial midwest are different from white working class voters in the south. with jim messina and stagg about why they don't care about national numbers....
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one race where that may be is nevada. dean heller is facing democratic representative shelly berkeley. dan springer is live at the heller elects -- heller election headquarters in las vegas. what do we know at this hour? >> jaime, it is empty here because the republicans all wept home. went home. this was supposed to be a battle ground state. it didn't turn out that way. president obama carried nevada by over 6%. a lot of people split their vote today. we just got word that dean heller who is the republican who was running for the senate has won his race against shelly berkeley. this was his first try for the senate because he was the incumbent that was appointed when john enson had to resign in disgrace from a sex scandal. heller retains his seat. he wins his first election. this was not supposed to be as close as it was. it was only a point and a half separating the two, about 12,000 votes. but it was very close because as you just mentioned we saw a huge minority population, a huge young people vote here. hispanics cam
one race where that may be is nevada. dean heller is facing democratic representative shelly berkeley. dan springer is live at the heller elects -- heller election headquarters in las vegas. what do we know at this hour? >> jaime, it is empty here because the republicans all wept home. went home. this was supposed to be a battle ground state. it didn't turn out that way. president obama carried nevada by over 6%. a lot of people split their vote today. we just got word that dean heller...
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if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is at 46, the challenger is probably in a better position, most of the time. however, we're making new mathematical history in these campaigns all the time. and you can see that argument, because it's an old argument. it's been around a while. it didn't work for john kerry and it's hard to say what's going to happen now. >> yeah. i spent over a year working seven days a week for john kerry so i'm familiar with that argument, i remember that argument. i think the critical question then as now is whether the challenger is viewed to be credible by election day. if you look at polling of a generic republican ver
if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is...
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iowa and nevada, we too close to call. for all of iowa's six electoral votes, they campaign my crazy nonstate. lou: this is a tough battle. it is always nice for these challengers against the incumbents. a tough uphill work in the best of times. they are running against very clever political operation in the obama campaign. neil: utah such a mormon stronghold. the romney has very strong ties in that state. his family has strong ties. no surprise that utah kids that way. orrin hatch was one who did resist a tea tea party insurgent. this would be his seventh term. lou: such a remarkably able u.s. senator. neil: he moved a lot of positions, he moved gingerly to the right, he cornered his tea party opponent and the winner of the republican primary. that is a seat that stays in republican hands. it could mean that republicans and in worse shape than what we think. lou: given what we have seen, i am not surprised -- in missouri and indiana, this is a campaign organization. let's be straight forward. the strategy was sometimes in
iowa and nevada, we too close to call. for all of iowa's six electoral votes, they campaign my crazy nonstate. lou: this is a tough battle. it is always nice for these challengers against the incumbents. a tough uphill work in the best of times. they are running against very clever political operation in the obama campaign. neil: utah such a mormon stronghold. the romney has very strong ties in that state. his family has strong ties. no surprise that utah kids that way. orrin hatch was one who...